Weekly Overview: Meat Demand Rise to Fuel Feed Grain Price Hikes in Next Decade
12 July 2016
ANALYSIS – Overall world meat production is predicted to stagnate at about 321 million tonnes in 2016, while pigmeat output could decline, according to the June 2016 FAO Food Outlook.
World production of pigmeat in 2016 is forecast to decrease marginally, by 0.7 per cent to 116.4 million tonnes.
As in 2015, lower output in China, which accounts for almost half the world total, is the main reason for the slowdown.
An unfavourable feed-pork price ratio in the country and new environmental regulations have caused farmers to reduce breeding sows, stalling growth. China’s production is projected to be 54 million tonnes, down 2.5 per cent from the previous year – click here to read more.
Another recent report, the ‘OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025’, projects that inflation-adjusted agricultural commodity prices will remain relatively flat overall in the coming decade. However, livestock prices are expected to rise relative to those for crops.
Food consumer prices are expected to be less volatile than agricultural producer prices over the coming decade.
As incomes improve, especially in emerging economies, demand for meat, fish and poultry will demonstrate strong growth, creating additional demand and price rises for feed grains.
“Significant production growth is needed to meet the expanding demand for food, feed and raw products for industrial uses, and all of these have to be done in a sustainable way,” said FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva.
“We are optimistic that most of that future demand for agricultural commodities will be mainly met through productivity gains rather than expansion of crop area or livestock herds,” he added – read more.
In disease news, ThePigSite this week reported on outbreaks of African Swine Fever in Ukraine, and in wild boar in Poland and Lithuania.